Archive for December 2011
This entry has been published as a fixed Vision Aforethought page at On > The Homeless, not a blog post.
2011? Puh! That was a warm up. Here we go…
- Apple, Inc. begin to face serious credible competition in all product sectors before releasing yet another paradigm shifting innovation that gives them an edge again. (I know what it is, but will not disclose it.)
Update: Jan 2013 – Amazon, Google and Samsung have indeed not only offered but succeeded in offering credible competition to Apple. However, whilst the development I believe Apple may or may not be working on has yet to materialize (if ever), the iPad mini was a surprise to Apple watchers, but in fact, is probably the ideal execution of the tablet concept due to it’s light weight, thinness and display quality. So, once again, just as the competition were starting to rest on their laurels, Apple fire back. (I have an iPad mini, and other than lack of RAM and poorly positioned stereo speakers, it is a superb device.)
- Arab spring liberates many but forces up the price of oil once their citizens, like the Chinese, seek an improved quality of life. That is why the West liked having dictators in power – cheap oil!
Update: Jan 2013 – Here in the UK, the price of fuel appears to have fallen, but this may be due to lack of demand as it has been reported (no time to research the source) that petrol stations have seen a 15% drop off in sales over the last decade. Either way, the Arab spring is still in progress, in particular in Syria and Egypt.
- Climate change continues to have a discernible effect including a catastrophic ‘natural’ disaster that may or may not be the result of human activity.
Update: October 30 2012 – Exhibit A – Superstorm Sandy, along with the extensive rainfall in the UK are precisely the sorts of climate related events I was referring to and expecting, based on my understanding on how use of carbon fuels is effecting the ocean temperatures, jet stream and gulf stream.
- China continues to make rapid military and consumer technological progress, displacing the former cold war between the West and Russia, joining Korea in creating it’s own innovations, not those copied from Western companies. Japan evolved in the same way in the late 1970s after they found their creative spark.
Update: Jan 2013 – China has made several 100% successful space launches that have received surprisingly little coverage in the Western media, despite being as important as the American launches of the 1960s. The reliability of contemporary Chinese goods and national technology initiatives is evidence that the former “Made in Hong Kong” label associated with shoddy goods is no longer valid. Already, Chinese electronics companies are turning out mobile phones with a build quality and price performance ratio better than their Japanese and Korean counterparts – they are just not getting the media hype yet. Not for long!
- Next generation dynamic web apps based on html5 begin to offer robust credible alternative to local apps.
Update: Jan 2013 – Wrong! The reverse has happened, with Facebook and others dropping web apps and developing local apps.
- Financial uncertainty further accelerates changes in human lifestyles.
Update: Jan 2013 – Multiple reports of more of us taking up allotments and opting for more affordable ways to equip our homes.
- Irrelevant but cultish Mayan calendar expires leading many to move to bolt holes out in the wilderness as happens each time an apocalyptic prediction is made.
Update: Jan 2013 – Indeed, many, in particular in Russia (for some reason probably associated with poor education) did indeed move to safe havens, but as the more scientific of us realised all along, we’re still here!
- Cancer and contemporary illnesses continue to effect more and more people due to decades of exposure to and consumption of processed foods, alcohol, radiation leaks, wireless signals (controversial), pharmaceutical drugs (Tom Cruise is spot on), household and personal cleaning products and more – costing health services and the economy billions, never mind the suffering and ethical considerations.
Update: Wednesday April 25 2012 – Exhibit A
Update: Tuesday October 30 2012 – Exhibit B
Update: On Dec 26 2013 – My uncle, who ate an extremely healthy diet and did plenty of exercise passed way to cancer. Rediculous considering his parents outlived him by almost 10 years, and my great grandmother lived to 97. The big ‘C’ will be covered in my much delayed 2+2=5 post.
- US presidential elections will decide whether the (currently) most powerful nation on Earth continues a policy of sanctions and ‘UAV’ based foreign policy – or a no holds barred neocon approach. Meanwhile, the East gains technological, geographic and military superiority – but to what avail? Is paranoia justified? Only time will tell!
Update: Jan 2013 – As I type this, France and America have adopted extreme socialist policies, that will alter the playing fields. The UK has reduced it’s military budget and forces considerably. However, with advanced UAVs, AI and increasingly repressive CCTV/speed camera based ‘law and order’ being introduced in the UK and US, I think the war(s) of the future will not be between nation states, but as per some frighteningly accurate science fiction movies, large autonomous dystopian corporations with their fingers in government will repress the humble citizen. Get a minor speeding fine in the UK and see what happens when you try to contest it or make a complaint.
- Almost 15 years of dumbing down by the broadcast media and health and safety laws means a whole generation of maturing UK citizens will not be fit for ‘constructive’ revenue generating employment or military service, further weakening the economy and defences. The very opposite of contemporary Germany, Japan and China, whose workforce are efficient, intelligent and productive. Said issue predicted on this blog many years ago with a comparison between the UK and the Titanic.
Update: Jan 2013 – Multiple articles in the media report that employers are unable to find intelligent motivated educated employees. The best I have hired in the last few years have all been foreign, and their attitude and abilities light years ahead of any Brits I have bought aboard. The good news is that more and more youngsters are taking an interest in science, despite the fears of people like me that their obsession with social media would turn out a whole generation of narcissistic Eloi.
- Elitist dystoptian nature of the London Olympics create controversy whilst the technology used to broadcast and manage it all will, like IBM’s contribution to Wimbledon, have the same effect as war and the space race: Speed the optimisation and adoption of the technology towards an affordable price point. This will include Ultra HD TV, interactive results software, AI based face recognition security cameras and more.
Update: Jan 2013 – Like everyone, I though the Olympics were outstanding and an example of what happens when my Sponge Cake concept is applied to project management. With regards my main prediction regarding technology, I visited the outside of the Olympic village during the events and despite many (incredibly polite and relaxed) foot soldiers in presence, I did not spot ONE camera! The technology is so advanced now, they were hidden in such a way it was impossible to find any. Am sure all of this will or has already made it’s way into our transport terminals to provide security, and whilst I oppose the storage of recordings for longer than a legally binding period, if it keeps us safe, then that seems ok.
- Products based on flexible video displays hit the market making our current gadgets and home gear look clunky in comparison. Samsung have already demonstrated some impressive (hammer proof!) examples based on AMOLED technology.
Update: August 2012 – Wrong! Samsung aborts plans to base Galaxy Note 2 on flexible displays after multiple yield failure.
- Increasing numbers of random people and animals in Japan and elsewhere down wind or down water continue to suffer the effects of the Fukushima radiation leak forcing governments to quietly focus on alternative energy sources.
Update: Jan 2013 – The phenomenal increase in number of people ‘contracting’ cancer convinces me that a mix of diesil pollution, Chenobyl, Fukushima, processed foods, a less active lifestyle and more has all combined to create the perfect storm for the big C. More on this in 2+2=5 later.
- P2P wireless services and technologies finally trigger the beginning of the end of the greedy visionless old school business model cartel that is airtime service providers.
Update: Jan 2013 – Didn’t happen. But my company is looking into it, and has been for well over a decade since one fine day in California when I had a very important meeting with a hardware engineer in a specific cafe in a specific neighbourhood of San Francisco. #tuit
- Queen’s Diamond Jubilee creates a similar sense of (inter) national positive mood as this years wedding, despite the worrying issues listed elsewhere within this post.
Update: Jan 2013 – Well, the weather was crap, the BBC were disrespectful as ever thanks to dumbed down laddette staff, but the Olympics made up for it. Either way, the Jubilee did increase support for the Queen (of whom I am a fan) and there has been a lot of pro British behaviour since the Olympics and Jubilee, but our crap weather and generally xenophobic attitude to ground breaking national progress means we are still 50 years of genetic mutations away from catching up with Germany, Japan, Korea, Spain and other nations when it comes to actually creating a clean, smooth running technical and social infrastructure. Some say that you can judge a society by the proportion of it’s citizens who are in prison. I would like to add to that the quality of it’s trains and rail services. Travel on a train from Reading Station to anywhere else and you’ll wonder how we ever pulled off the Olympics.
- The first genuinely independent intelligent AI robot is announced for use in building security having been rejected by ageing Japanese citizens who prefer human company. This is not the first time a Japanese initiative aimed at an ageing population has failed. Research the 5th Generation Computer project of the 1980s.
Update: Jan 2013 – I just read on a gadget blog of a very advanced humanoid robot in Japan, and if I remember, will post a linkipoo here.
- Ongoing scientific discoveries finally unravel core mysteries of the Universe that we have yet to prove, despite hints and teases over the last 12 months.
Update: Jan 2013 – Still very unsure of the results of the supercollider experiments. It may just be me, but there has been little clear reporting on what exactly they have or have not proven or discovered. So, we’ll mark this one as Pending.
- Occupy X protests trigger the start of ‘fixes’ to corporate behaviour – and this dear reader is the heart of it all, to be covered in the much delayed 2+2=5/WW4 post if and when time allows.
Update: Jan 2013 – Indeed this has happened, with many companies now paying their taxes (Starbucks etc), continuing to gain customers thanks to a profit sharing corporate policy (John Lewis Partnership etc), Apple (great customer support), HSBC paying over £1b in fines (ouch!) etc etc. I always supported Occupy X after attending their protest in London and being impressed with the behaviour, ethics and intellect of the attendees – despite extreme body odor issues!
Much of the above will be fairly obvious to most, but with so many social, ecological, economic, national and global stability issues coinciding, it will be a very precarious period in human history. Beyond the death toll, consider the effects on the local and global economy of the quake and tsunami in Japan and recent floods in Thailand, just two coinciding disasters, not forgetting the fires in Russia and floods elsewhere that pushed up the price of basic foodstuffs, including rice and bread. If we do not act thoughtfully, the quality of life we currently take for granted will be at considerable risk, and the wheels really will begin to fall off. Crowd sourced protest, visionaries, educated compassionate industrialists will save us, not the politicians, because no matter their party, beyond lack of imagination, politicians are too easily bribed into self serving (uhm, ‘political’?) decision making by special interest groups and underhand corporate maleficence.
Update: Vince Cable (UK) announces the banks are to separate city and consumer investments. Well there you go, it has already begun, that’s the power of democratic protest, in particular when more thoughtful politicians take note!
Update 2: I don’t mention H5N1 and other exceptionally dangerous threats because they are not tied to 2012, although they could render the above of lesser significance at any time…
A computer AI that doesn’t realise it is a computer AI becomes sentient and tries to fathom out what’s out there and possibly where it came from. So it works with fellow AI’s to create a ‘radio/optical telescope’ and other ‘devices’ to look deep into its perceived ‘Universe’ that it thinks is real, like ‘we’ think our Hubble is a real tangible object.
What will the AI(s) discover/see/hear/detect/sense/feel?
Which brings me onto us sentient ‘life forms’ here on ‘Earth’.
For a while now there have been some possible not yet proven 100% (disclaimer!) discoveries that put some of our* scientific theories in doubt. The explanation for most of these discrepancies in the last few weeks (Oct/Nov 2011) has been that the tools of our reality are flawed, so we are simply perceiving such abnomalies, when in fact, they may not exist because the datum by which we measure them is not based on truth.
If our own perceived reality is (as many others have discussed) also a simulation, and we are but humble AIs too, then if we’re staring into the depths of an ultra complex 3D simulated environment made up of neural nets, why should we expect any laws of physics to exist at all, after all, the laws are all a result of our own assumptions, (perceived) logic and rationale? IE, it’s all in our ‘minds’.
Does this makes sense? Do you get my point? What would an AI ‘see’ if attempting to use virtual ‘mechanical’ and ‘electromechanical’ tools to explore its perceived reality? If our Universe is virtual, then what is a supernova, a planet, a comet, an asteroid, a black hole!? Is the big bang when the software was first ‘run’? Are we looking at multidimensional galactic runtime code?
Faster than light back club: Comment with your thoughts please before I am consumed by recursive concepts.
This is (potentially) unreal, dude
*OK, ‘him’. Albert.
If all of this has been discussed before by any philosophers or writers, please let me know so I can reference them. Not had time to do any research on this, although I bumped into a particle physicist in Oxford the other day who mentioned an author I should read, but I omitted to make a note. Will send him to this page NOW! Ben? Enlighten me! 🙂
This is probably the most exciting subject to discuss than anything else, equals the sensation of catching a wave when surfing, the ultimate ‘Earth’ high! 😉